- Brent crude settled at $95.84 a barrel on Friday, Nov. 13, 2026, up 2 cents.
- WTI crude settled at $88.56 a barrel, down 18 cents.
- Both benchmarks posted a second straight weekly loss of about 2.5%, after falling 13% to 16% the week before.
- The IEA expects the market to swing to a surplus of 1.7 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2026, the first since the Iran war began.
- Attacks on Saudi oil facilities and the U.S. blockade of Iranian oil are still keeping prices from falling further.
World oil prices posted another weekly decline. At Friday's close on Nov. 13, 2026, Brent held near $95 a barrel and WTI near $88 a barrel, as worries about oversupply began to outweigh geopolitical risk in the Middle East.
Prices swung throughout the week. They jumped on Thursday after attacks on Saudi oil infrastructure, then came under pressure again on Friday when the International Energy Agency (IEA) projected a supply surplus.
Quick answer: Brent crude settled at $95.84 a barrel and WTI at $88.56 a barrel on Nov. 13, 2026. Both fell about 2.5% over the week, their second weekly decline in a row, after the IEA projected that global supply will again exceed demand in the fourth quarter of 2026.Latest World Oil Prices
Front-month Brent crude settled 2 cents higher at $95.84 a barrel on Friday. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fell 18 cents to $88.56 a barrel. For the week, both lost about 2.5%.
The decline extends the previous week's sharp correction, when Brent fell 16% and WTI 13% on hopes for a peace deal with Iran. In early November, Brent was still above $104 a barrel.
| Benchmark | Nov. 13, 2026 Settle | Daily Change | Weekly Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brent | $95.84 | +$0.02 | about -2.5% |
| WTI | $88.56 | -$0.18 | about -2.5% |
| Brent-WTI spread | $7.28 | - | - |
Despite the slide, Brent is still about 58% higher than at the start of 2026, when it stood at $60.75 a barrel. This year's peak came on March 31 at around $118 a barrel, as the Iran war escalated.
IEA: Market Returns to Surplus
In its monthly report released Friday, the IEA estimated global oil supply at about 105 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2026, or 1.7 million barrels per day above demand. That would be the first surplus since the Iran war began. The agency had previously forecast a deficit for the same quarter.
The IEA also cut its 2026 world oil demand estimate by 2.7 million barrels per day to 102.3 million barrels per day. For 2027, it expects demand to grow by 2 million barrels per day, but supply to grow much faster, leaving a projected 2027 surplus of about 3.8 million barrels per day.
Rising output from the United States, Canada, Brazil, Argentina and Guyana is the main driver of supply growth outside OPEC+.
OPEC+ Output and U.S. Inventories Rise
An OPEC report released Wednesday, Nov. 11, showed OPEC+ output in October rose by 2.04 million barrels per day to 41.23 million barrels per day, about 97% of its pre-war February level. Higher production from Saudi Arabia and Iraq weighed on prices.
In the United States, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that commercial crude inventories rose by 4.7 million barrels to 414.4 million barrels in the week ended Nov. 6. Analysts had expected a draw of 1.1 million barrels, and the build ended a five-week streak of declines.
Gasoline and distillate stocks also rose, by 1.8 million and 4.1 million barrels respectively, a sign that U.S. fuel demand is starting to soften.
Iran and Saudi Risks Still Loom
Prices did not fall further because supply risks in the Middle East have not gone away. On Thursday, Nov. 12, Brent jumped 3.3% after Yemen's Houthis claimed attacks on an East-West pipeline pumping station, a facility in Yanbu and an Aramco building in Riyadh.
Iran's military also claimed that four tankers were hit by explosions in the Strait of Hormuz after ignoring warnings. That claim could not be independently verified.
U.S. President Donald Trump said Washington will maintain its blockade of Iranian oil shipments and economic sanctions, adding that a deal with Tehran is not needed to end the conflict. Markets read this as lowering the odds of major new strikes, while keeping Iranian export restrictions in place for longer.
The IEA put effective OPEC+ spare capacity at only about 0.45 million barrels per day, meaning any new disruption in the Gulf could still send prices sharply higher.
Stronger Dollar Adds Pressure
The U.S. dollar index touched 103.30, a 19-month high, amid expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise rates at its Dec. 8-9 meeting. A stronger dollar makes oil more expensive for buyers outside the United States and tends to dampen demand.
U.S. stocks also fell on Friday, with the Nasdaq down about 1.85% on a semiconductor selloff. The risk-off mood further limited buying interest in commodities.
What It Means for Indonesia
For Indonesia, lower world oil prices offer some breathing room. The Indonesian Crude Price (ICP) tracks Brent, so the past two weeks' correction could ease the burden of energy subsidies and compensation in the state budget.
The decline is also one of the benchmarks fuel retailers such as Pertamina, Shell, BP and Vivo use when reviewing non-subsidized fuel prices for the next period. Even so, the effect at the pump depends on the rupiah exchange rate, which is also under pressure from the stronger U.S. dollar.
FAQ (Frequently Asked Questions)
At Friday's close on Nov. 13, 2026, Brent was $95.84 a barrel and WTI was $88.56 a barrel. Oil markets are closed on weekends, so these prices hold until Monday's trading. The main reasons are the IEA's projection of a 1.7 million barrel-per-day supply surplus in the fourth quarter of 2026, higher OPEC+ output, rising U.S. crude inventories and a stronger U.S. dollar. Attacks on Saudi oil facilities, claims of tanker explosions in the Strait of Hormuz and the U.S. blockade of Iranian oil exports are still supporting prices. Brent is the North Sea benchmark used for most of the world's oil trade, including as the reference for Indonesia's ICP. WTI is the U.S. crude benchmark traded in New York. There has been no official announcement. Non-subsidized fuel prices are reviewed periodically by retailers based on world oil prices and the rupiah, while subsidized fuel prices are set by the government.1. What is the world oil price today?
2. Why are world oil prices falling?
3. What is keeping oil prices from falling further?
4. What is the difference between Brent and WTI?
5. Will fuel prices in Indonesia go down?
Conclusion
The oil market is now being pulled by two big forces. On one side, global supply is recovering faster than expected and the IEA already sees a surplus. On the other, conflict around Iran and Saudi Arabia could trigger a price spike at any time.
Next week, traders will watch the EIA's U.S. inventory data on Wednesday, Nov. 18, as well as security developments in the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea.
- Brent settled at $95.84 and WTI at $88.56 a barrel on Nov. 13, 2026.
- Oil fell for a second straight week, down about 2.5% this week.
- The IEA projects a 1.7 million barrel-per-day surplus in Q4 2026.
- U.S. crude inventories rose by 4.7 million barrels, against expectations.
- Gulf risks and the Iranian oil blockade are still limiting the decline.
